There has been a marked change in the British political climate. The Conservative party was heading for disaster—quite possibly irreversible disaster—under a weak leader, Iain Duncan Smith. Now it has replaced him with a strong leader, or a man with all the makings of one, Michael Howard. And the change proved unexpectedly painless. Howard was elected leader unopposed. For the time being, at least, the party has rallied solidly behind him.

Meanwhile Labour’s troubles are increasing. Dissent over the Iraq war has taken its toll. Long-promised improvements in public services such as health and transport remain a mirage. The widely recognized but previously unacknowledged power struggle between Tony Blair and his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, has come right out into the open.

For most commentators the possibility of the Conservatives winning the next election still remains unthinkable. They may well be wrong: eve ...

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