The short twentieth century, beginning
with the assassination of the
Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand at Sarajevo in July 1914 and culminating in the
collapse of communist totalitarianism in the annus mirabilis 1989, is now
behind us even if its intellectual substance has not been adequately
digested by our intellectual and political elites. The end
of the cold war and the implosion of European communism even led some to
proclaim “the end of
history” as if the hyperbolic wars and totalitarian
regimes of the century were mere parentheses, a disturbing if temporary
blip in the forward march of humanity. Today, commentators too often
oscillate between pessimistic despair and progressivist complacency,
between Spenglerian nightmares about “the clash of civilizations” and
neo-Hegelian fantasies about “the end of History.” What is needed instead
is reliable judgment rooted in a balanced appreciation of the profound
forces at work in the modern world. Among the best guides to understanding
the short twentieth century is Raymond Aron (1905–1983), the great French
political thinker, sociologist, and philosopher, who provided the surest
commentaries on the events of the century even as they were unfolding. His
writings combine meditative reflections on the contemporary world with
astute commentaries on “history-in-the-making.” He wrote authoritatively
about politics and war, economics and political philosophy. His judgment
was humane and sure-footed, rooted in common sense and in the best
available information about the nature of modern societies. He
effortlessly
combined the modern social sci-
entist’s attention to particulars with the
phronesisthat Aristotle