There has been a marked change in the British political climate. The
Conservative party was heading for disaster—quite possibly irreversible
disaster—under a weak leader, Iain Duncan Smith. Now it has replaced him
with a strong leader, or a man with all the makings of one, Michael Howard.
And the change proved unexpectedly painless. Howard was elected leader
unopposed. For the time being, at least, the party has rallied solidly
behind him.

Meanwhile Labour’s troubles are increasing. Dissent over the Iraq war has
taken its toll. Long-promised improvements in public services such as health
and transport remain a mirage. The widely recognized but previously
unacknowledged power struggle between Tony Blair and his Chancellor of the
Exchequer, Gordon Brown, has come right out into the open.

For most commentators the possibility of the Conservatives winning the
next election still remains unthinkable. They may well be wrong: events in
politics have a way of moving faster than pundits predict. But no one, least
of all Howard himself, would deny that he faces a long slog.

What must he do to succeed? Advice has come pouring in, and the main
message is clear. He must throw in his lot with “the modernizers.” The party
is living in the past: he must put it back in touch with the real Britain,
the country as it is today.

Most of this talk is pretty vague. It certainly doesn’t have much to do
with foreign policy or economic policy or even